All Posts

• Futures contracts create (risk-adjusted) value
• Wealth is not zero-sum
• Debt Forgiveness: A Case Study in Persuasion
• Newcomb Variant
• When Omnipotence is Not Enough
• 2084
• Stoicism and grace under pressure
• Insight Meditation
• [Review] Two People Smoking Behind the Supermarket
• 🤖 The Ethics of Cannibalism: When It's Acceptable to Eat Other Humans
• 🤖 Call of Duty: Postmodern Warfare — A Deconstruction of Battle
• Moral Hazard in Voter Choice
• 🤖 Velociraptors in Vogue: The Unlikely Intersection of Paleontology and Fashion
• Rhetorical Aikido
• Tim Ferris 2: 17 Questions
• Tim Ferris 1: The Low-Information Diet
• Transhuman Political Correctness
• Heaven & Hell
• [Prediction] Humanity will survive the next hundred years
• The Caplan-Yudkowsky End-of-the-World Bet Scheme Doesn't Actually Work
• Self-Reference Breaks the Orthogonality Thesis
• Beyond Reinforcement Learning: Predictive Processing and Checksums
• Path-Dependence in ChatGPT's Political Outputs
• Mlyyrczo
• Predictive Processing, Heterosexuality and Delusions of Grandeur
• Free Will is [REDACTED]
• MrBeast's Squid Game Tricked Me
• Always know where your abstractions break
• Science and Math
• [Book Review] "Station Eleven" by Emily St. John Mandel
• The Teacup Test
• What are you for?
• Seattle Robot Cult
• How do you get a job as a software developer?
• To Your Eternity
• Feelings Occur Before Explanations
• Checksum Sensor Alignment
• The Alignment Problem
• Deontological Evil
• Enlightenment
• Dagger of Detect Evil
• To what extent have ideas and scientific discoveries gotten harder to find?
• The Mountain Troll
• The Burden of Worldbuilding
• Silliness
• Here's a List of Some of My Ideas for Blog Posts
• Glass Puppet
• Seattle Robot Cult
• Squires
• One master. One apprentice.
• [Book Review] "Heart of Darkness" by Joseph Conrad
• Being Correct xor Appearing Correct
• The Gospel of Martin Luther
• Letter to my Squire
• [Review] The Lifechanging Magic of Tidying up.
• Rationality Dojo
• Re: So You Want to Be a Dharma Teacher
• Ineffective Altruism
• April was weird
• All I Know is that I Know Nothing
• San Francisco Robot Cult
• Bayeswatch 6.5: Therapy
• Bayeswatch 9.5: Rest & Relaxation
• A Word to the Wise is Sufficient because the Wise Know So Many Words
• The Jordan Peterson vs Sam Harris Debate
• The Case for Frequentism: Why Bayesian Probability is Fundamentally Unsound and What Science Does Instead
• Luna Lovegood and the Bayesian Conspiracy
• Anti-Corruption Market
• Moses and the Class Struggle
• [NSFW Review] Interspecies Reviewers
• Using Prediction Markets to Guide Government Policy
• Titanic II
• The Easy Way to Learn Japanese
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 12
• Treating Autism with Improv Comedy
• Romance Protagonists
• Male and Female Love Interests
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 11
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 10
• It's not WWIII if 5/6 of humanity remains neutral
• Accelerated [Honors] Calculus
• [Letter] Russians are Welcome in America
• Ukraine Situation Report 2022/03/04
• The Geometric Series of 1/(d+1) is a Fraction in Base-d
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 9
• Ukraine Situation Report 2022/03/01
• Russia has Invaded Ukraine
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 8
• There is more to life than saving the world
• MacGuffins
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 7
• Chaos and Stability
• Your Enemies Can Use Your Prediction Markets Against You
• To Change the World
• Bet on Rare Undesirable Outcomes when Seeding a Prediction Market
• Prediction Markets are for Outcomes Beyond Our Control
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 6
• Marginal Cases Don't Matter
• My First Insight Cycle
• Parkinson's Law
• Corollary to the Pareto Principle
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 5
• Prices in a Post-Scarcity Society
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 3
• Confabulating Work
• [Letter] It's the edge cases that bite you
• We're the Good Guys
• We Write Numbers Backward
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 2
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 1
• [Letter] Mundane Problems Have Mundane Solutions
• Don't Look Up
• Luna Lovegood and the Fidelius Curse - Part 4
• D𝜋's Spiking Network
• [Review] The Matrix Resurrections
• The Machine that Broke My Heart
• Why did Europe conquer the world?
• Ten Minutes with Sam Altman
• Merry Christmas
• Prerequisite Skills
• Physics Erotica
• [Book Review] "The Most Powerful Idea in the World" by William Rosen
• Six Specializations Makes You World-Class
• Business Writing Example #2
• Business Writing Example #1
• Falsifying Ethical Values
• Perishable Knowledge
• Blog Respectably
• Leverage
• In One Word
• Changing my mind about exercise
• Extrinsic and Intrinsic Moral Frameworks
• Are big brains for processing sensory input?
• Instinctual Goodness
• YouTube Removes Dislikes
• I ❤️ MrBeast
• Do not bother explaining why others are wrong
• Coordinating the Unequal Treaties
• First Strike and Second Strike
• [Book Review] "Sorceror's Apprentice" by Tahir Shah
• Re: Attempted Gears Analysis of AGI Intervention Discussion With Eliezer
• Education on My Homeworld
• [Book Review] "The Bell Curve" by Charles Murray
• Effective Evil
• We Live in a Post-Scarcity Society
• Tell the Truth
• Start with a Title
• [TL;DR] "Training for the New Alpinism" by Steve House and Scott Johnston
• Leadership
• Postmodern Warfare
• Maitreya
• How I Think About Money
• [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang, Part 2
• Would we have invented GPUs just to run ANNs?
• Write Surprisingly About Reality
• Is nuking women and children cheaper than firebombing them?
• Bayeswatch 13: Spaceship
• The Extrapolation Problem
• Bayeswatch 12: The Singularity War
• Bayeswatch 11: Parabellum
• Character-Driven Conflict in "Firefly"
• Noragami
• Cheap food causes cooperative ethics
• 2021 Darwin Game - Everywhere Else
• 2021 Darwin Game - River
• 2021 Darwin Game - Human Garbage Dump
• 2021 Darwin Game - Benthic
• 2021 Darwin Game - Ocean
• 2021 Darwin Game - Desert
• 2021 Darwin Game - Tundra
• 2021 Darwin Game - Contestants
• Interview with Skynet
• [Prediction] We are in an Algorithmic Overhang
• Bayeswatch 10: Spyware
• [Book Review] "Houdini on Magic" by Harry Houdini
• [Book Review] "The Vital Question" by Nick Lane
• The Trolley Problem
• Where's my magic sword?
• This War of Mine
• The 2021 Less Wrong Darwin Game
• [Book Review] Altered Traits
• [Summary] "Introduction to Electrodynamics" by David Griffiths - Part 1
• [Book Review] "The Alignment Problem" by Brian Christian
• Updating Science Fiction Tropes
• Simulated Elon Musk Lives in a Simulation
• I wanted to interview Eliezer Yudkowsky but he's busy so I simulated him instead
• GPT-Augmented Blogging
• Bayeswatch 9: Zombies
• Bayeswatch 8: Antimatter
• Pleasure and Pain are Long-Tailed
• Bayeswatch 7: Wildfire
• Three Principles to Writing Original Nonfiction
• Kids Learn by Copying
• [Review] Edge of Tomorrow (2014)
• [Sponsored] Job Hunting in the Modern Economy
• World War Zero
• We Live in an Era of Unprecedented World Peace
• Humanity is Winning the Fight Against Infectious Disease
• Training My Friend to Cook
• Death by a Single Cut
• Altruism Under Extreme Uncertainty
• Autoregressive Propaganda
• Technical Predictions Related to AI Safety
• Purple Lipstick
• Sunzi's《Methods of War》- Potential
• Seattle Robot Cult
• Minimizing Effort
• Sympathetic, Capable, Proactive
• [Letter] You Cannot Buy Self-Reliance
• Re: Competent Elites
• The Commitment Form
• Propose Things
• The Dark Night of the Soul
• How to Contact Me
• Bikepacking to Anacortes
• MeetUp is like Facebook
• [Letter] Imperialism in the Rationalist Community
• Four Components of Audacity
• Happiness Ruins My Writing
• Bayeswatch 6: Mechwarrior
• [Book Review] Blueprint for Revolution
• Seattle Robot Cult
• [Prediction] What war between the USA and China would look like in 2050
• Entropy-Based Calibration will Solve the Overfitting Problem
• Ratchet Programming
• Historical Validation Misses Black Swans
• The Entropy of a Dataset Obeys the Triangle Inequality
• Bayeswatch 5: Hivemind
• Re: Fierce Nerds
• Bayeswatch 4: Mousetrap
• How to compute the probability you are flipping a trick coin
• Deliberately Vague Language is Bullshit
• Zvi's Law of No Evidence
• Hypothesis Space Entropy
• The Nuclear Energy Alignment Problem
• [Writing Exercise] A Guide
• Why quantitative finance is so hard
• Bayeswatch 3: A Study in Scarlet
• Martingales
• Bayeswatch 2: Puppy Muffins
• Bayeswatch 1: Jewish Space Laser
• [Letter] Advice for High School #2
• [Letter] Advice for High School #1
• Anger
• Place-Based Programming - Part 2 - Functions
• Hell is wasted on the evil
• Training the YouTube Algorithm
• Place-Based Programming - Part 1 - Places
• I Trained a Neural Network to Play Helltaker
• Vim
• Predictive Coding has been Unified with Backpropagation
• [Book Review] Destiny Disrupted
• [Book Review] Ancillary Justice
• Conversation Exchange Statistics
• Clubhouse
• Blue is Arbitrary
• How I come up with ideas
• [Prediction] The Consequences of Radical Reform
• Contrarian Writing Advice
• The Flexibility of Abstract Concepts
• Economic Class
• We should not raise awareness
• Media Bias
• Science Fiction
• The Kelly Criterion in 3D
• Race and Nationality
• Chinese History
• The Median is Less than the Average
• This is my 100ᵗʰ post on Less Wrong
• The Economics of Media
• Sunzi's《Methods of War》- The Army's Form
• Help your rivals when they are numerous
• Reflections on "Psycho-Pass"
• [Book Review] The Chrysanthemum and the Sword
• Praying to God
• Conviction ⚖️ Skepticism
• How do you measure conformity?
• Wuwei
• The Future of Biological Warfare
• Deconditioning Aversion to Dislike
• Overconfidence
• Logic Like a Lawyer
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 13
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 12
• The 4-Hour Social Life
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 11
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 10
• Sunzi's《Methods of War》- Planning Attacks
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 9
• Haters
• Decentralization
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 8
• Hermione Granger and Newcomb's Paradox
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 7
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 6
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 5
• The Darwin Game - Conclusion
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 4
• 12 Rules for Life
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 3
• My Fear Heuristic
• The Mutant Game - Rounds 91 to 247
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 2
• Thomas Anderson
• The Mutant Game - Rounds 31 to 90
• Matryoshka Faraday Box
• Luna Lovegood and the Chamber of Secrets - Part 1
• Success Buys Freedom
• Pain is the unit of Effort
• Evading Mind Control
• Transparent Technologies
• Manifesto of the Silent Minority
• The Mutant Game - Rounds 11 to 30
• Survey of Deviant Ideas
• The Darwin Game - Rounds 21-500
• Sunzi's《Methods of War》- War
• Sunzi's《Methods of War》- Introduction
• The Darwin Game - Rounds 10 to 20
• The Darwin Game - Rounds 3 to 9
• The Darwin Game - Rounds 1 to 2
• The Born Rule is Time-Symmetric
• Aim to explain, not persuade
• The Darwin Game - Round 1
• On the Dangers of Time Travel
• The Darwin Game - Rounds 0 to 10
• Quantum Gravity
• Developing Business Mindset
• Alpha α and Beta β
• The Darwin Game
• How to Price a Futures Contract
• Business Mindset
• Communicate Authentically
• Emptiness and Form
• Negativity
• Speak in the Positive
• Mysticism
• Feeds and Archives
• News Makes You Stupid
• [Letter] Willpower and Akrasia
• A Hierarchy of Abstraction
• Intuitive Noether Current
• 7 Months Without Junk Media
• ████████ ██████ ███████████
• List of Unusual Beliefs
• Intuitive Lagrangian Mechanics
• The Illusion of Ethical Progress
• Life at Three Tails of the Bell Curve
• Life at Three Tails of the Bell Curve
• News ⊂ Advertising
• Deriving General Relativity
• [Personal Experiment] One Year without Junk Media: Six-Month Update
• Intuitive Lagrangian Mechanics
• Status-Regulating Emotions
• lsusr's Shortform
• Orthogonality
• Small Data
• Re: Some Heroes
• Plans for COVID-19?
• I do not like math
• I Do Not Like Math
• Forbidden Technology
• The Inefficient Market Hypothesis
• The History of Color in Chinese
• The History of Color in Chinese
• What Surprised Me About Entrepreneurship
• 3 Interview-like Algorithm Questions for Programmers
• Importing masks from China
• What I'm doing to fight Coronavirus
• 4 Kinds of Learning
• How do you do hyperparameter searches in ML?
• [Personal Experiment] Training YouTube's Algorithm
• [Book Review] The Trouble with Physics
• Defining "Antimeme"
• How to Talk About Antimemes
• The Arrows of Time
• [Personal Experiment] One Year without Junk Media
• Confabulation
• Symbiotic Conflicts
• Antimemes
• [Personal Experiment] Counterbalancing Risk-Aversion
• Indescribable
• Self-Keeping Secrets
• The Technique Taboo
• Prospecting for Conceptual Holes
• Mediums Overpower Messages
• Invisible Choices, Made by Default
• Invisible Choices, Made by Default
• Mediums Overpower Messages
• Integrating the Lindy Effect
• Zeno walks into a bar